Nailing The Triple Lindy

(Photos by Kin Man Hui & Jerry Lara of the San Antonio Express-News)

How did the Spurs manage a 55-point turnaround from being smacked down in Game 2 by the Heat 103-84, to blowing their doors off 113-77 in Game 3? A quick glance at the box score suggests Danny Green and Gary Neal were most responsible for the Spurs’ domination, and that is largely accurate.

The third-biggest blowout in NBA Finals history was driven in large part by the scorching 3-point shooting of Green (7-of-9 beyond the arc) and Neal (6-of-10 from downtown), who finished with 27 and 24 points, respectively. Those two were clearly the story of Game 3.

But the real story of this series – the guy who has been the true MVP of The Finals up to this point – is Kawhi Leonard. His relentless work on the boards (36 rebounds – 13 offensive – in three games, posting double-doubles in two of those games) and total lockdown effort on defense (holding LeBron James to three consecutive playoff-low point totals: 18, 17, and 15) has been extraordinary.

The only negative to come out of Game 3 for the Spurs was an apparent hamstring injury to Tony Parker, whose status for Game 4 is in doubt. The Spurs were able to dominate Game 3 without a huge contribution from Parker (6 points), but their odds of winning without him are extremely slim. Cory Joseph has exceeded expectations as backup point guard during the playoffs so far, especially for a guy who spent a good portion of the season in the D-League, but to rely upon him as a starter in The Finals against the Heat is likely asking more than he’s capable of delivering.

Parker’s health will be the most important storyline of The Finals from this point forward. No matter how hot Green and Neal can remain from long range, the Spurs absolutely need Parker running the point to have any hope of claiming their fifth title. If the team’s trainer can get Parker back on the court, perhaps he should be named Finals MVP.

(Photos by Kin Man Hui of the San Antonio Express-News)

Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard showed up for Game 2, but none of their teammates did, which resulted in the Spurs getting their asses handed to them by the Heat 103-84. While Green shot a Finals-record 5-for-5 from beyond the arc (and was a perfect 6-for-6 overall) to lead the team in scoring and Leonard grabbed 14 rebounds, the Big Three of Parker, Duncan and Ginobili combined for just 27 points on 10-for-33 shooting and accounted for 9 of the Spurs’ 16 turnovers on the night (quadruple the team’s Game 1 total).

It wasn’t simply a matter of the Spurs playing terribly (which they most certainly did), but the Heat were just as great as the Spurs were awful. Although LeBron actually scored even less than his previous playoff-low Game 1 total (17, down from 18), he was an absolute beast on defense – his cataclysmic block of what was about to be an epic Tiago Splitter dunk (if there really even is such a thing) was the highlight of a swarming Heat defensive effort that resulted in a 33-5 game-deciding run.

Unless the Spurs pull their heads out and match the Heat’s intensity, focus and desire from this point forward, that 33-5 run may not just have decided Game 2, but it may prove to have decided this series. It would also help if Ginobili will quit simulating Grand Mal seizures every time he has the ball. Because what looked after Game 1 to be shaping up as an ultra-competitive all-time classic Finals series destined to go seven, suddenly looks after Game 2 to be three straight wins from a Heat championship.

If Popovich truly is one of the greatest coaches in league history, he’s going to have to prove it over these next few games. Another showing like what the Spurs put forth on Sunday night certainly won’t help cement his legacy. In fact, getting outstrategized by Erik Spoelstra would mar it significantly. Let’s see what Pop and his team are truly made of, because what they showed in Game 2 was certainly not championship mettle.

(Photos by Edward A. Ornelas & Kin Man Hui of the San Antonio Express-News)

When listing the reasons why the Spurs beat the Heat 92-88 in Game 1 of the 2013 NBA Finals, most will point to yet another spectacular night by Tony Parker or Tim Duncan’s determined second half performance after a slow start.  And while Parker’s miraculous shot clock buzzer-beater with 5.2 seconds remaining certainly clinched the victory for San Antonio, there were several other factors just as important, if not more so.

It seems counterintuitive to single out a defensive performance against someone who posted a triple double, but Kawhi Leonard was absolutely outstanding all night guarding LeBron James, holding him to a playoff-low 18 points on 7-of-16 shooting from the field.  This was a highly-anticipated matchup going into The Finals, and it did not disappoint.  It’s extremely doubtful LeBron will be held under 20 points every game in this series, but if Leonard can keep up this level of defense, the Heat will have a long road to hoe.

The Spurs received a significant boost on offense from Danny Green, whose 12 points may not look like much at first glance, but he hit four clutch three-pointers at critical moments in the game – including a real backbreaker with just over two minutes remaining to boost the Spurs’ lead to seven.  San Antonio typically relies heavily on three-pointers, and on a night when the rest of his teammates combined to go a dismal 3-for-14 from beyond the arc, Green really delivered.

Considering the fact that his poor showing during last year’s Western Conference Finals against the Thunder was a major factor in the Spurs’ shocking exit following their 20-game win streak, it’s a real credit to Green that he’s put that behind him and matured into a player capable of coming through without shrinking again under the brightest of spotlights.

Team-wise, the single biggest factor in the Spurs winning Game 1 is that they tied an all-time Finals record by committing only four turnovers on the night.  This is especially remarkable when you consider the fact that Miami had forced Indiana into 111 turnovers during the Eastern Conference Finals, including a whopping 21 in Game 7.  Securing the ball will be key for San Antonio the rest of the way if they want to emerge victorious over the Heat and claim their fifth title.

So now, it’s on to Game 2.  Some might consider it an overstatement to label that a must-win game for the Heat, but you have to think their odds of winning the series become close to infinitesimal if they face heading to San Antonio for three games in the Alamo City down 0-2.  Expect an epic battle on Sunday night.  The Spurs could really start nailing the proverbial coffin with a win.

(Image modified from the original posted to philstar.com and credited to Jonathan Asuncion of NBA.com Phillipines)

Having been a die-hard San Antonio Spurs fan for nearly 40 years, I’m not the best person to provide an unbiased analysis of this year’s NBA Finals. Starting tonight, my beloved Spurs open their fifth trip to the league’s championship round, this time facing by far their most daunting Finals opponent ever: the Miami Heat.

As defending champions, the Heat are prohibitive favorites to beat the Spurs, who haven’t won a title since sweeping a much younger and inexperienced LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavalier squad in 2007. The Heat are much younger, much more athletic, and generally more talented than the Spurs – which is why 13 of the 18 “experts” at ESPN.com are picking Miami to win.

My heart wants to focus on the positives in the Spurs’ favor:

• They’ve never lost an NBA Finals series, having won the title all four times they’ve made the championship round.
• At 12-2, they’ve got the best record of all teams in this year’s playoffs – even better than Miami’s 12-4.
• The gap in coaching acumen between Gregg Popovich and Lars Ulrich soundalike Erik Spoelstra is roughly equivalent to the width of the Gulf of Mexico between Texas and Florida.
• Tim Duncan’s tank is topped off with turbo-strength emotional rocket fuel, given the impending end of his career and recent end of his marriage. He is loaded for bear, and the results may be similar to what happened when Jefferson’s car got trashed in Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
• Tony Parker is at his absolute career peak right now, playing at a level even exceeding his performance as 2007 Finals MVP. Unless the Heat want to have LeBron guard him the whole time, they will have no answer for Parker.
• Manu Ginobili is 100% healthy for the first time since the only way to fly from San Antonio to Miami was by pterodactyl (at least it seems that long).
• While no human exists who can completely shut down LeBron, Kawhi Leonard is about as physically equipped and capable as anyone alive. He will make LeBron work, and then some.
• Teams entering The Finals having swept their opponent in the previous round (Spurs) are 4-2 all-time against teams coming off a Game 7 (Heat). That’s not the record for Game 1, it’s the record for the entire series.
• Each of the Spurs’ previous four championships were won in odd-numbered years. This is 2013.

Now, having said all that, my head forces me to confront these unfortunate realities facing the Spurs:

• The Heat have the home-court advantage in this year’s Finals, and went 2-0 against the Spurs during the regular season – including the second game, in which Dwyane Wade and LeBron both sat out.
• LeBron has been waiting to avenge being swept by the Spurs in his first Finals for eight years. Winning the championship last year did not diminish his thirst for vengeance, because the team Miami beat in 2012 was not the Spurs. The only thing more dangerous than LeBron is relentlessly driven LeBron.
• Miami’s bench is much more proven and battle-tested over the years than the Spurs’. Guys like Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Rashard Lewis, and yes, even that walking freak show Chris “Birdman” Andersen are much less likely to wilt under the intense Finals spotlight than Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, Boris Diaw, and Cory Joseph.
• Despite their gaudy 12-2 record this postseason, the Spurs have been absolutely atrocious on the offensive glass most games – a trend only likely to continue, if not worsen, when facing Miami’s athleticism.
• As much as the lengthy post-WCF rest helped the aging Spurs, it even more likely enabled rust to set in, which may be hard for them to shake off enough to claim an all-important win in one of the first two games at Miami. Taking all three of the middle home games (3-5) is very difficult, so the last thing the Spurs need is to fall into an 0-2 hole.
• The Spurs have to play almost flawlessly to beat the Heat. The Heat are young and athletic enough to overcome errors that will otherwise be the Spurs’ undoing, such as turnovers and cold shooting. It’s much more difficult to win a series when you have little-to-no margin for error (Spurs), as opposed to being able to win in spite of occasionally sloppy play (Heat).

So, while my heart says Spurs in 7, my head says Heat in 6. Which will be right? The head usually wins, but every now and then, the heart emerges victorious. I’m clearly hoping for the latter.